Pre-Iowa Caucus Punditry

Having been a participant in the 1992 Iowa Caucuses (which were basically conceded to Senator Tom Harkin and thus lacked much drama) all the way through the State Democratic Convention that summer, allow me to interject my take on the day prior to the 2008 Caucuses.

The only prediction I will make is that Hillary Clinton will not win Iowa. There is a large percentage of undecided voters, and a very small percentage of them will ultimately go to Clinton. If one was not with her already, she is not going to gain such supporters at the last minute. While stopping short of an outright prediction, I think that John Edwards is most likely to win the state and, indeed, the Democratic nomination.

The Republican field is so underwhelming that I hesitate to make any prognostications as to the eventual nominee here. Giulini is a fascist, McCain is too old, Romney is too fake, Huckabee is too inexperienced, and Thompson is too laggard.

Right now the general election is the Democrats to lose. However, as the general campaign gets underway later this year, do not underestimate: (1) the Democrats' potential to screw things up; and (2) the GOP's potential to play dirty tricks and, if necessary, somehow steal (yes, steal) the election.